In my opinion, Mixed Martial Arts is the best sport in world. What is not my opinion is that it is the fastest growing sport in world. If the money starts getting more substanital, as in the millions consistently, I am predicting that the market will see a slow shift of elite athletes that will at least consider MMA as opposed to basketball or football – definitely boxing. That being said, I take a serious interest in each UFC held and I find it very entertaining to pick the winners (although I can’t gamble). I tend to be accurate in my selections with Chuck Liddell’s loss to Shogun a few months back being the biggest surprise to my picks lately.
For UFC 104 we have some interesting bouts ( I am only commenting on the fights guaranteed to be broadcast). I listed how I felt about my predictions in parentheses. I usually win my “strong” picks:
Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida Vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (Strong)
Shogun has a great record, but he has looked like trash his last couple of fights…including his fight against Chuck. He just happened to look a tad better than Chuck who is, unfortunately, likely in the end of his career. Catching someone with a “big shot” and completely knocking them out does not provide a true testament of “being back” as some would like to claim with Shogun. That being said, Machida continues to surprise me. He probably shouldn’t suprise me, but he does. I use to think his style was kind of annoying and a part of me still feels that way, but regardless of how I feel, its highly effective. In addition to his diffcult style, the guy is highly explosive. Going through Thiago Silva relatively easily and then TKO’ing Rashad Evans was incredibly impressive. For this, I am picking Machida with a late 1st or early 2nd round TKO.
Cain Velasquez Vs. Ben Rothwell (Strong)
I have seen Rothwell fight a number of times and he is a tough guy – no doubt about it. Lots of experience with 36 fights and I am pretty sure he was IFL champion (don’t quote me on this). Unfortunately for Rothwell, Velasquez is nasty. Velasquez was an All-American wrestler at Arizona State and he now trains at A.K.A. in San Jose (this is a great camp under Beunotello with the likes of Koschek and Fitch repping the gym). In addition, Velasquez’s all-around game, particularly his stand-up has dramatically improved. So much so that in his last fight some of my friends (who dont really watch the sport) were asking if he was a striker originally. Rothwell may take Velasquez the distance, but I highly doubt it. Ground and Pound TKO by Velasquez in the 2nd or 3rd.
Gleison Tibau Vs. Josh Neer (Strong)
Without a doubt the most interesting fight of the evening. Tibau I think may be one of the most underrated fighters in the game. He is a great brazilian wrestler in addition to his solid jiu-jitsu. Also, he is massive. I heard Joe Rogan say he walks at something like 185 and cuts to 155. However, I can never discount Neer who is also a large 55′er. I expect this fight to be highly dynamic, but I feel Tibau is going to come out on top. I am not 100% sure on the definite outcome, but I feel Tibau will win. Tibau by decision.
Joe Stevenson Vs. Spencer Fisher (Moderate)
Two extremely tough 155 guys. I don’t really like Fisher because he knocked out my guy Matt Wiman with a highlight flying knee, but he is tough. He has beaten some real notable fighters including a much bigger Thiago Alves with a beautiful triangle. I think his standpoint is better than Stevensons, but I am pretty sure Stevenson will dominate the ground – especially with his absurd “arm-in guillotine.” If I had to pick, I would say Fisher by decision barring he doesn’t get taken down and pounded out.
Anthony Johnson Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (Strong)
Anthony Johnson is a definite up-and-comer in the sport: Incredible athlete, highly explosive, and a decorated wrestler in college. He poses serious problems for opponents at 170 because he is tall at 6’2 and has a long reach of 76′ inches. He does a good job of determining the range in the stand-up and then poses maybe even more of a significant problem in his ability to wrestle. However, though I have never seen Yoshida fight, I read a little about him and he is impressive. Judo National Champion and member of the Olympic team. 14 fights with 11 victories. Judo guys can give traditional fighters like Johnson some problems with funky throws. If Yoshida can complete one of these and place Johnson on his back, he can win; however, I do not think that is going to happen. I would not be surprised is Johnson TKO’ed Yoshida, but Japanese fighters I find are difficult to finish… maybe a cultural thing. Johnson by decision.